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Other Stuff => Archives => Election 2012 => Topic started by: foodserver on November 02, 2012, 08:43:53 PM

Title: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: foodserver on November 02, 2012, 08:43:53 PM
Summon the fat lady.  Michael Barone has just called the race for Romney.

To the surprise of no one, especially myself his prediction is razor close to my own.  In fact we disagree on only one state.  Barone thinks Romney will win Iowa (6).  His prediction Romney 315 Obama 223.

So let's see how fucking brilliant I truly am.

(the evil) Karl Rove Prediction: Romney 279-Obama 259   
               Richy's prediction       Romney 309-Obama 229
               Michael Barone          Romney 315-Obama 223

Yep.  Feelin' plenty good about my electoral college prediction:

Michael Barone is reputed to have an almost encyclopedic knowledge of the federal election system.  If there is a Left wing equivalent to him, I am unaware of it.
     

                       
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: FeydRatha on November 02, 2012, 09:33:05 PM
Never heard of him.

Did he write one of the blogs that Romney claimed as one of those 6 unbiased studies that confirmed his tax ideas?

I see from Wikipedia that he has a tendency to claim that his obnoxious comments were jokes. Hahahahaha.
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: foodserver on November 02, 2012, 10:10:49 PM
velleity says,

Never heard of him

http://www.aei.org/scholar/michael-barone/ (http://www.aei.org/scholar/michael-barone/)
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: Observer on November 03, 2012, 03:04:13 PM
(http://thehostages.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/uninstall.gif)
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: Rudy2D on November 03, 2012, 07:30:45 PM
Never heard of him.

I'd bet that he's never heard of you, either. 
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: Lt. Columbo on November 03, 2012, 07:41:23 PM
Summon the fat lady.  Michael Barone has just called the race for Romney.

To the surprise of no one, especially myself his prediction is razor close to my own.  In fact we disagree on only one state.  Barone thinks Romney will win Iowa (6).  His prediction Romney 315 Obama 223.

So let's see how fucking brilliant I truly am.

(the evil) Karl Rove Prediction: Romney 279-Obama 259   
               Richy's prediction       Romney 309-Obama 229
               Michael Barone          Romney 315-Obama 223

Yep.  Feelin' plenty good about my electoral college prediction:

Michael Barone is reputed to have an almost encyclopedic knowledge of the federal election system.  If there is a Left wing equivalent to him, I am unaware of it.
                     
Romney is not going to win this election. He is behind in Ohio. Michigan. And now Wisconsin. That settles it. He is a horrible, horrible candidate. His latest gaffe about Jeep has snuffed all chances of Ohio. Chris Christie has all but endorsed Obama. Colin Powell endorsed Obama. Obama leads in at least the right swing states to win this election. You are full of yourself. Time to make things interesting....
WILL YOU PROMISE TO QUIT THIS FORUM AND NOT COME BACK UNDER ANY USER NAME IF YOU ARE WRONG?
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: dustup on November 03, 2012, 07:41:52 PM
I'd bet that he's never heard of you, either.
.......(http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-laughing024.gif).....good one Rudy!
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: rei on November 03, 2012, 07:47:09 PM
Barone's a tool.
He used to be a go-to source for political insight.
Now he's just a tool.
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: dagon on November 03, 2012, 08:37:25 PM
Romney is not going to win this election. He is behind in Ohio. Michigan. And now Wisconsin. That settles it. He is a horrible, horrible candidate. His latest gaffe about Jeep has snuffed all chances of Ohio. Chris Christie has all but endorsed Obama. Colin Powell endorsed Obama. Obama leads in at least the right swing states to win this election. You are full of yourself. Time to make things interesting....
WILL YOU PROMISE TO QUIT THIS FORUM AND NOT COME BACK UNDER ANY USER NAME IF YOU ARE WRONG?

ah, let him keep it up flyboy.

peace
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: JC3.0 on November 03, 2012, 08:38:03 PM
WILL YOU PROMISE TO QUIT THIS FORUM AND NOT COME BACK UNDER ANY USER NAME IF YOU ARE WRONG?
That was exactly the bet I have w/ foodserver. The loser leaves the forum for good and does not return under any user name.
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: Observer on November 03, 2012, 09:41:24 PM
You won't be missed.
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: dagon on November 03, 2012, 09:49:16 PM
You won't be missed.

sorry obs.  he probably won't have to be missed.

romney is down obs and he's just about out;  surely even you must feel it at this point.

romney could still win but it really isn't looking good for him.  other bright notes is that we may be also finally getting rid of michelle bachmann and alan west.

peace
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: Observer on November 03, 2012, 10:11:11 PM
I don't know what planet you live on, but on this one, the race could go either way. For the incumbent to be behind in so many states is a very bad sign for him. He should, just by virtue of the fact that he is the incumbent be in a dominant position.

I don't know who is going to win. I do know that if Obama wins, America loses.
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: dagon on November 03, 2012, 10:16:00 PM
I don't know what planet you live on, but on this one, the race could go either way. For the incumbent to be behind in so many states is a very bad sign for him. He should, just by virtue of the fact that he is the incumbent be in a dominant position.

he's not behind.  and need i remind you that all he has to do is win ohio where he remains up and has been up for months?  and let's be honest here obs.  obama should be getting creamed with the economy in the state it's in.

that's how bad of a candidate romney is.

peace
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: foodserver on November 04, 2012, 02:34:15 AM
he's not behind.  and need i remind you that all he has to do is win ohio where he remains up and has been up for months?  and let's be honest here obs.  obama should be getting creamed with the economy in the state it's in.

that's how bad of a candidate romney is.

peace


I think Romney will win Ohio.

But doesn't it all come down to the all-important Buckeye State? Here, too, the early voting news isn't encouraging for the president.

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.


That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama's 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224 . Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.

Democrats explain away those numbers by saying that they are turning out new young Ohio voters. But I asked Kelly Nallen, the American Crossroads data maven, about this. She points out that there are 12,612 GOP "millennials" (voters aged 18-29) who've voted early compared with 9,501 Democratic millennials.

Are Democrats bringing out episodic voters who might not otherwise turn out? Not according to Ms. Nallen. She says that about 90% of each party's early voters so far had also voted in three of the past four Ohio elections. Democrats also suggest they are bringing Obama-leaning independents to polls. But since Mr. Romney has led among independents in nine of the 13 Ohio polls conducted since the first debate, the likelihood is that the GOP is doing as good a job in turning out their independent supporters as Democrats are in turning out theirs.

Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.[/b]
more at http://www.rove.com/articles/432 (http://www.rove.com/articles/432)

 I also think he will win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for similar reasons  but the fact is that he only has to win one of the three in many scenarios (namely, Rove's, Barone's and mine  :) ) Romney can lose Iowa Nevada and any two of the first three states mentioned and still win.  There are also intangibles, the biggest one being crowd size.  Democrat crowds are down, Republican crowds up.  In a close election intensity is everything.  In addition to that, I continue to believe in the "stealth abstainer" factor for the Food Stamp Distributor in Chief.  Novice voters embarrassed and disappointed by the disparity between their expectations and the reality of an Obama first term who quietly walk away without voting. 

Finally dags, in addition to intensity there is turnout organization.  Now look us in the eye here bud.  You know what Romney is and what he has done with his life.  You also know how much time and effort Romney has put into this campaign.  If it comes down to turnout machines, do you really doubt that a self made millionaire, philanthropist and entrepreneur will be able to create a better organization than Pakalolo Man?

Really??  :)

PS. I'm curious if you had a EC prediction if you posted one and I missed it then my bad...
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: foodserver on November 04, 2012, 02:37:45 AM
Barone's a tool.
He used to be a go-to source for political insight.
Now he's just a tool.

OK so like maybe David Gergen...?  :)
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: JC3.0 on April 09, 2014, 01:25:40 PM
([url]http://thehostages.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/uninstall.gif[/url])


This was another "genius" prediction from 2012 I thought I'd bring back for posterity and amusement. This one was from another "I am never wrong" type, other than foodserver.
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: JC3.0 on April 09, 2014, 02:16:50 PM
Finally dags, in addition to intensity there is turnout organization.  Now look us in the eye here bud.  You know what Romney is and what he has done with his life.  You also know how much time and effort Romney has put into this campaign.  If it comes down to turnout machines, do you really doubt that a self made millionaire, philanthropist and entrepreneur will be able to create a better organization than Pakalolo Man?       Really??  :)


Feeling very nostalgic today and reminiscing about those so sure of themselves....At least this one had the balls to put it all on the line.
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: notoc on April 09, 2014, 02:38:46 PM

Feeling very nostalgic today and reminiscing about those so sure of themselves....At least this one had the balls to put it all on the line.

Oh I don't know. A straight up as poor old foodserver was in betting his membership on his delusions of omniscience - PMF bet her whole family's health and financial well being on hers.
Title: Re: My Uncanny political Acumen:
Post by: JC3.0 on April 09, 2014, 02:49:41 PM
Oh I don't know. A straight up as poor old foodserver was in betting his membership on his delusions of omniscience - PMF bet her whole family's health and financial well being on hers.

True,dat....actually, a membership bet in a forum pales in comparison to betting her whole family's health and financial well being when you think about it. Who's fooling who about what kind of person is a moron for betting one or the other at that point?