Divided We Fail

[Coke]

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Divided We Fail
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Barring a huge upset, Republicans will take control of at least one house of Congress next week. How worried should we be by that prospect?

Not very, say some pundits. After all, the last time Republicans controlled Congress while a Democrat lived in the White House was the period from the beginning of 1995 to the end of 2000. And people remember that era as a good time, a time of rapid job creation and responsible budgets. Can we hope for a similar experience now?

No, we can’t. This is going to be terrible. In fact, future historians will probably look back at the 2010 election as a catastrophe for America, one that condemned the nation to years of political chaos and economic weakness.

Start with the politics.

In the late-1990s, Republicans and Democrats were able to work together on some issues. President Obama seems to believe that the same thing can happen again today. In a recent interview with National Journal, he sounded a conciliatory note, saying that Democrats need to have an “appropriate sense of humility,” and that he would “spend more time building consensus.” Good luck with that.

After all, that era of partial cooperation in the 1990s came only after Republicans had tried all-out confrontation, actually shutting down the federal government in an effort to force President Bill Clinton to give in to their demands for big cuts in Medicare.

Now, the government shutdown ended up hurting Republicans politically, and some observers seem to assume that memories of that experience will deter the G.O.P. from being too confrontational this time around. But the lesson current Republicans seem to have drawn from 1995 isn’t that they were too confrontational, it’s that they weren’t confrontational enough.

Another recent interview by National Journal, this one with Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, has received a lot of attention thanks to a headline-grabbing quote: “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”

If you read the full interview, what Mr. McConnell was saying was that, in 1995, Republicans erred by focusing too much on their policy agenda and not enough on destroying the president: “We suffered from some degree of hubris and acted as if the president was irrelevant and we would roll over him. By the summer of 1995, he was already on the way to being re-elected, and we were hanging on for our lives.” So this time around, he implied, they’ll stay focused on bringing down Mr. Obama.

True, Mr. McConnell did say that he might be willing to work with Mr. Obama in certain circumstances — namely, if he’s willing to do a “Clintonian back flip,” taking positions that would find more support among Republicans than in his own party. Of course, this would actually hurt Mr. Obama’s chances of re-election — but that’s the point.

We might add that should any Republicans in Congress find themselves considering the possibility of acting in a statesmanlike, bipartisan manner, they’ll surely reconsider after looking over their shoulder at the Tea Party-types, who will jump on them if they show any signs of being reasonable. The role of the Tea Party is one reason smart observers expect another government shutdown, probably as early as next spring.

Beyond the politics, the crucial difference between the 1990s and now is the state of the economy.

When Republicans took control of Congress in 1994, the U.S. economy had strong fundamentals. Household debt was much lower than it is today. Business investment was surging, in large part thanks to the new opportunities created by information technology — opportunities that were much broader than the follies of the dot-com bubble.

In this favorable environment, economic management was mainly a matter of putting the brakes on the boom, so as to keep the economy from overheating and head off potential inflation. And this was a job the Federal Reserve could do on its own by raising interest rates, without any help from Congress.

Today’s situation is completely different. The economy, weighed down by the debt that households ran up during the Bush-era bubble, is in dire straits; deflation, not inflation, is the clear and present danger. And it’s not at all clear that the Fed has the tools to head off this danger. Right now we very much need active policies on the part of the federal government to get us out of our economic trap.

But we won’t get those policies if Republicans control the House. In fact, if they get their way, we’ll get the worst of both worlds: They’ll refuse to do anything to boost the economy now, claiming to be worried about the deficit, while simultaneously increasing long-run deficits with irresponsible tax cuts — cuts they have already announced won’t have to be offset with spending cuts.

So if the elections go as expected next week, here’s my advice: Be afraid. Be very afraid.

[Velleity]

Tragically WE, THE PEOPLE don't understand this:

"Today’s situation is completely different. The economy, weighed down by the debt that households ran up during the Bush-era bubble, is in dire straits; deflation, not inflation, is the clear and present danger. And it’s not at all clear that the Fed has the tools to head off this danger. Right now we very much need active policies on the part of the federal government to get us out of our economic trap."

to our severe detriment.

[IM2]

I just hope that we are not that stupid. I really hope and pray. Because if we are, whoa be unto us.

[Velleity]

I would hope the Democrats would use this as an opportunity to make lemonade out of lemons. Obviously it will require a shift in strategy. What that shift would be I do not know, but there are better minds than mine and I hope they can figure this out.

[Coke]

I think the Democrats are a hopeless lot for the most part.  Look no further than Obama's failed stategy of Republican appeasement.  We need more Alan Grayson types - congressmen with guts!

http://congressmanwithguts.com

[lucy]

Does it really matter ulitmately? Vote your conscience.

[Velleity]

Does it really matter ulitmately? Vote your conscience.

What does that mean? Of course it matters. There is a huge difference between Democrats and Republicans. The memes to the contrary are silly.

Do you want to go back to George Bush or worse? That's the question you need to ask because the Republicans have not changed. If you vote for them you vote to go back to those policies of more war, less taxes for rich people, and tough shit for you if you're middle class even if we have to go into a Great Depression to finish you off.

And the current crop of wannabes is crazier and stupider than ever. And thanks to their crazies on the Supreme Court and their Citizens United case they have a lot more corporate and foreign money behind them. Is that what you want? It matters a lot Lucy.

[johnhp]

Of course it matters.  Think back to 200.  Would Gore have been talked into Iraq?

[flyboy]

I'm afraid the repubs will own both the house and the senate.  But they still will need Obaman's signature to get any bill passed.  I can't see Obama putting his singature on a repeal of health care reform. 

Obama is at fault here.  He squandered all that politicial capital he had coming into office on the health care reform while the rest of the country was scared stiff about keeping their jobs.  Not saying it wasn't a good thing he did. But the timing was terrible.  I don't think he anticipated the resistance he would be getting even from his own party aka blue dog democrats.  What should have taken 18 weeks took 18 months. 

[IM2]

We do need more Grayson types. As for tuesday, I would hope that sanity prevails over fear.

[Coke]

What does that mean? Of course it matters. There is a huge difference between Democrats and Republicans. The memes to the contrary are silly.

Indeed.  If you vote Republican, you are voting to condemn the USA forever.  The Democrats have many flaws but are the only alternative to "regression" and "aggression".

[johnhp]

A vote for republicans is a vote for people who want to give tax breaks for sending jobs overseas; who want to deregulate environmental, worker and all types of extremely helpful regulations.

[Velleity]

Indeed.  If you vote Republican, you are voting to condemn the USA forever.  The Democrats have many flaws but are the only alternative to "regression" and "aggression".

We have a system that was designed to make it difficult to get things done. Getting people to agree and compromise isn't as easy as it sounds, especially when one party is abusing this and thwarting the other.

[johnhp]

We have a system that was designed to make it difficult to get things done. Getting people to agree and compromise isn't as easy as it sounds, especially when one party is abusing this and thwarting the other.

Well, we have a system that makes it easy for one extremist senator to clog up the system.