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Online Mornac

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Re: Trump prosperity update
« Reply #1065 on: April 23, 2019, 02:39:09 PM »
S&P 500 rallies toward record close after strong earnings from broad range of companies

APR 23 2019
Fred Imbert

The S&P 500 headed for a record close on Tuesday as Wall Street cheered stronger-than-expected quarterly profits from some of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies.

The broad index traded 0.8% higher at 2,932.09, above an all-time closing high of 2,930.75 set on Sept. 20. It was still below its intraday record of 2,940.91.



Tuesday’s move toward an all-time closing high comes less than six months after a sharp decline in late December, which led the S&P 500 to its worst annual performance since 2008. But stocks quickly turned around as the Federal Reserve reversed course on monetary policy while the tone around U.S.-China trade talks improved.

“These market levels are justified,” said Kevin Barry, chief investment officer at Captrust Advisors. “The fourth-quarter sell-off actually prevented a recession because policymakers responded extremely quickly. Both President Xi and President Trump cooled off the rhetoric and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell came out and reversed course.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also traded higher, gaining 155 and 1.2%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was also headed for a record close.

Dow members Coca-Cola and United Technologies reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Tuesday. Their shares rose 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively.

Twitter shares jumped 16.3% on its stronger-than-expected results. The social media company said its monthly active users totaled 330 million, more than a FactSet estimate of 318 million.

Defense giant Lockheed Martin also rallied more than 6% after its earnings easily topped expectations. The company reported strong operating margins across all its major businesses, which include aeronautics and missiles.

Procter & Gamble also posted stronger-than-forecast earnings, but its stock traded down 2.4%. Texas Instruments, eBay and Stryker are set to release their latest quarterly results after market close.

This is the busiest week of the corporate earnings season. Once the dust settles, more than 140 S&P 500 companies will have released their calendar first-quarter results.

So far, the results have largely topped expectations. More than 78% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported have surpassed analyst expectations, according to FactSet data.

“Among the key companies that have reported, most of them have beaten expectations,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. “That means we’re probably going to escape an earnings recession. That will be key for the market to rally from here.”

Wall Street also kept an eye on oil prices as they hit their highest level this year amid intensifying concern about global supplies. It comes after the U.S. announced a further clampdown on Iran’s oil exports.

The world’s largest economy said Monday that from May 1, it would eliminate all waivers allowing eight economies to buy Iranian oil without facing U.S. sanctions.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $74.73 on Tuesday, up around 0.9%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $66.58, 1.6% higher.

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Re: Trump prosperity update
« Reply #1066 on: April 26, 2019, 11:13:19 PM »
Outlook for the US economy and stock market brightens

4/27/19

WASHINGTON (AP) — The worries that hung ominously over the U.S. economy early this year appear to have lifted. And that sunnier picture has helped bolster confidence in the stock market — driving the benchmark S&P 500 index to another record high Friday.

The latest dose of encouragement came in a report Friday that the U.S. economy grew much faster than expected in the January-March quarter, suggesting that the nearly decade-long expansion still has a ways to go.

Other recent signs have fed a growing view among many analysts that the economy faces little risk of slipping into a recession anytime soon as some had feared when the year began. Retail sales jumped in March. And with hiring solid and wages rising at a decent pace, consumer spending will likely strengthen in the coming months.

In Friday’s report, the government said the economy grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s much better than the 1% or below rate that was forecast in the early weeks of 2019.

Though the economy is widely expected to slow in the current quarter to a roughly 2% rate or less, such a pace would still produce annual growth for the first half of the year of roughly 2.5%. That would be a solid gain. And it would be in line with the modest but steady growth that has prevailed for most of the expansion.

It’s also a far brighter scenario than the one envisioned late last year and early this year. A 35-day partial shutdown of the government remained in effect through most of January. Global growth was sputtering in the midst of the U.S.-China trade war. Stocks plummeted in December as the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for the eighth time in nine quarters and signaled that further tightening was likely. Mortgage rates rose, discouraging many would-be home buyers.

American households also cut back: Retailers’ sales were weak in January and February, adding to the bleak outlook.

Share prices, though, began to rebound in January, after the Fed signaled that it had put any further rate increases on hold, likely for the rest of the year. That emboldened investors, who have become increasingly confident that the economy will avoid the worst-case scenario of a recession.

After falling nearly 20% at the end of last year, the S&P 500 has now recouped all its losses since late September. Though few Americans have substantial stock holdings, rising share prices can help boost consumer confidence.

Economists cautioned that first quarter growth was driven mostly by several temporary factors that should reverse themselves in coming months. Retailers and other companies, for example, sharply increased the stockpiles of goods in their warehouses and on store shelves. Those additions added nearly 0.7 percentage point to the quarter’s growth figure. And the trade deficit narrowed sharply, adding an additional percentage point.

“We know this is not going to be sustainable,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax consulting firm.

Businesses won’t likely order as many new goods as they wait for consumer spending to reduce their stockpiles. That will probably restrain growth. And the improvement in the trade deficit last quarter occurred partly because imports fell sharply after many companies ramped up their buying from China last year in advance of potential tariff increases the Trump administration had scheduled for Jan. 1.

The White House ended up delaying those tariffs. As imports return to normal, the trade deficit will likely widen again.

Exports also rose in the January-March period, with China stepping up its purchases of U.S. goods, which some economists attributed to a temporary goodwill gesture by Beijing amid high-stakes trade talks between the two countries. Those negotiations are ongoing.

State and local government spending also rose last quarter, mostly to build more highways, which added 0.4 percentage point to growth and may also prove short-lived.

“Taking out the over-sized boosts from net trade, inventories and highways investment, which will all be reversed in the coming quarters, growth was only around 1%,” said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics. “Under those circumstances, we continue to expect that GDP growth will slow this year.”

Larry Kudlow, head of President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council, said the administration is sticking by its estimate that growth will top 3% for all of 2019. He argued that low unemployment and solid wage gains will lift consumer spending, thereby boosting auto and home sales.

“I think the prosperity cycle is intact,” Kudlow told CNBC. “I think the Trump policies are working to rebuild America.”

Whether the stock market can continue to march ahead — without additional evidence of corporate or economic strength — is far from clear.

“It’s important to note investors already knew the U.S. economy was the strongest in the world,” said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell.

Companies are in the midst of reporting how much profit they made in the first three months of 2019, and investors aren’t expecting much. Analysts are forecasting the first drop in earnings for S&P 500 companies since the spring 2016.

But many companies have so far reported results that were better than Wall Street expected. That’s crucial because stock prices tend to track profit growth over the long term.

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Offline hurricanehook

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Re: Trump prosperity update
« Reply #1067 on: May 01, 2019, 05:33:53 PM »
Private payrolls surge by 275,000 in April, blowing past estimates in biggest gain since July
 
Private payrolls grew by 275,000 last month, the biggest increase since July, when they expanded by 284,000.

Services-providing jobs increased by 223,000 in April, led by a gain of 59,000 jobs in professional and business services.

"The job market is holding firm, as businesses work hard to fill open positions," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.



The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in April as payrolls in the services sector grew by the most in more than two years, according to data released Wednesday by ADP and Moody's Analytics.

Private payrolls grew by 275,000 last month, the biggest increase since July, when they expanded by 284,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected private payrolls growth of 177,000.

Services-providing jobs increased by 223,000 in April, led by a gain of 59,000 positions in professional and business services. Education and health services companies added 54,000 jobs while employment within the leisure and hospitality industry expanded by 53,000.


Goods-producing jobs — which include construction, manufacturing and mining — rose by 52,000, led by a 49,000 payrolls increase in construction. The economy added just 5,000 manufacturing jobs while mining employment declined by 2,000.

Overall, medium-sized businesses, those that employ 50 to 499 people, led the way in jobs creation last month by adding 145,000 jobs. Jobs within small businesses, meanwhile, increased by 77,000 while large companies hired 53,000.

"The job market is holding firm, as businesses work hard to fill open positions," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said in a statement. "The economic soft patch at the start of the year has not materially impacted hiring. April's job gains overstate the economy's strength, but they make the case that expansion continues on."

Wednesday's report came after the Commerce Department said last week the economy grew by 3.2% in the first quarter on an annualized basis. That was the best start to a year since 2015. The official jobs report for April from the government will be released Friday.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/05/01/private-payrolls-surge-by-275000-in-april-blowing-past-estimates-and-the-biggest-gain-since-july.html

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Online Mornac

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Re: Trump prosperity update
« Reply #1068 on: May 03, 2019, 11:35:49 AM »
Jobs surge in April, unemployment rate falls to the lowest since 1969

May 3, 2019
Jeff Cox

- The U.S. added 263,000 new hires in April, easily beating Wall Street expectations of 190,000.

- The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% vs. 3.8% expected and the lowest since December 1969.

The U.S. jobs machine kept humming along in April, adding a robust 263,000 new hires while the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, the lowest in a generation, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payroll growth easily beat Wall Street expectations of 190,000 and a 3.8% jobless rate.

Average hourly earnings growth held at 3.2% over the past year, a notch below Dow Jones estimates of 3.3%. The monthly gain was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% increase, bringing the average to $27.77. The average work week also dropped 0.1 hours to 34.4 hours.

Unemployment was last this low in December 1969 when it hit 3.5%. At a time when many economists see a tight labor market, big job growth continues as the economic expansion is just a few months away from being the longest in history.



The unemployment rate for Asians fell sharply, plunging from 3.1% to 2.2%.

While last month’s slump in the jobless rate came with strong increase in hiring, it also was helped along by a sharp decline in the labor force of 490,000. That brought the labor force participation rate down to 62.8%, exactly where it was a year ago.

A broader unemployment gauge that includes those who have quit looking for jobs as well as the underemployed held at 7.3%, where it has been since February.

Those counted as not in the labor force surged by 646,000 to a fresh high of 96.2 million.

“Leaving aside month-to-month fluctuations, the labor market is still very strong, adding almost double the number of workers needed to keep pace with new entrants to the labor force in any given month,” said Eric Winograd, AllianceBernstein’s senior economist. “Wages may have been slightly tepid this month relative to expectations but are still growing at just about the highest rate this cycle, and the unemployment rate is at multi-generational lows.”

The level of unemployed people plunged by 387,000 in April, bringing the total level to 5.8 million. However, the ranks of the employed also declined by 103,000, according to the Labor Department’s household survey.

Professional and business services led job creation with 76,000 new positions. Construction added 33,000, bringing to 256,000 the total new jobs created in the field over the past year.

Health care rose by 27,000, bringing its 12-month total to 404,000, while financial positions increased by 12,000, rounding out an increase of 111,000 in the 12-month period thanks largely to growth in real estate and rental and leasing.

Social assistance increased by 26,000, while manufacturing added 4,000.

Retail, whose fortunes have fluctuated in recent months, saw a loss of 12,000 jobs.

Previous months saw net upward revisions, with February going from a scant 33,000 growth to 56,000, though March’s total was reduced to 189,000 from 196,000, for a net gain of 16,000. Year to date, job gains have averaged 205,000 a month.

April’s big increase comes amid a mostly positive backdrop of economic data.

GDP increased 3.2% during the first quarter, far exceeding expectations, while productivity during the quarter jumped 3.6% for its best gain in five years. Pending home sales rose 3.8% in March, providing some hope in the real estate market so long as rates are held in check.

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve held the line on its benchmark interest rate, characterizing economic growth as solid even as inflation remains tame. The central bank watches metrics like the nonfarm payrolls report closely for clues both on job creation and wage pressures.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said current indications point to a prolonged period of holding pat on increases or decreases in rates. President Donald Trump has said he wants the Fed to cut rates by a full percentage point.

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Online Mornac

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Re: Trump prosperity update
« Reply #1069 on: May 17, 2019, 03:34:26 PM »
US consumer sentiment surges to highest level in 15 years

5/17/19
Thomas Franck

- The University of Michigan’s preliminary print on its consumer sentiment index rose to 102.4, up from 97.2 in April and well ahead of expectations.

- “Consumers viewed prospects for the overall economy much more favorably, with the economic outlook for the near and longer term reaching their highest levels since 2004,” says Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers.

- The optimistic consumer outlook was mostly recorded before U.S.-China trade deliberations soured earlier this month.


Consumer sentiment rocketed to its highest level in 15 years in early May as Americans grew more upbeat on the health of the economy and its path in 2019, according to data released Friday.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary print on its consumer sentiment index rose to 102.4, up from 97.2 in April and well ahead of economist expectations of 97.5.

“Consumers viewed prospects for the overall economy much more favorably, with the economic outlook for the near and longer term reaching their highest levels since 2004,” said Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers. “To be sure, negative references to tariffs rose in the past week and are likely to rise further in late May and June.”

The optimistic consumer outlook was mostly recorded before U.S.-China trade deliberations soured earlier this month.

Last week, the Trump administration raised tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s attempts to renegotiate a trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies. China then responded in kind, bumping taxes on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods in retaliation.

Aggravated trade tensions between the U.S. and China could dampen consumer sentiment going forward, Curtin said, and will likely weigh on subsequent reports in May and June.

“Even apart from the direct impact of tariffs on prices, rising tariffs could cause a more general loss of confidence which could further diminish the pace of consumer spending,” Curtin wrote. “At present, the data point toward moderate spending growth in the year ahead. Nonetheless, the data indicate the corrosive impact of an escalating trade war.”

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Online Pepsi

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Re: Trump prosperity update
« Reply #1070 on: May 30, 2019, 08:08:55 PM »
absolutely nothing will be found.

there is nothing to be found.

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Re: Trump prosperity update
« Reply #1071 on: May 31, 2019, 06:54:50 PM »

The same thing happened when he announced the tariff on Chinese goods. Eventually, it recovered and it will again this time.

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Re: Trump prosperity update
« Reply #1072 on: June 11, 2019, 12:30:26 PM »
The stock market is closing in on its all-time high. Here’s what could clinch it



Stocks are closing in on their all-time highs, and some analysts say the outlook for interest rates could determine which way the market goes.

The S&P 500 was 2.3% away from its all-time high of 2,954 through Monday’s close while the Dow was 3.3% from its high and Nasdaq was 4% from its record.

Stocks typically do well in June after a weak May, and strategists say the market has a chance to break to new highs if the trade outlook with China is positive.

The decline in Treasury yields, which spooked stocks, is overdone, and that could help drive a stock rally, according to one market technician.


June 11, 2019
Patti Domm

The next big test for the stock market will be whether the major indexes can break through all-time highs, just a short distance away.

Stocks have rallied on expectations that the Fed should be cutting interest rates in the near future, and that President Donald Trump would stand down from his threat to put tariffs on Mexico, as he did on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are both up more about 5% in June. The Dow is up for six-straight days and futures pointed to another big gain Tuesday.

“I think it goes back to its highs. This would be a pretty quick recovery from a pullback. Normally, it takes about a month and a half to get back to breakeven. This could happen in less than half a month,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

Stovall said weak May markets usually lead to a boom in June. The S&P lost 6.6% in May. Going back to World War II, whenever there was a strong start to the year, the market traditionally fell in May but rose in June, and this year was very strong through April.

The S&P 500 was 2.3% away from its all-time high of 2,954 through Monday’s close while the Dow was 3.3% from its high and Nasdaq was 4% from its record.



“I think the market’s feeling like there really is nothing to be worried about,” Stovall said. “I think that’s because of the lower rates that will help pull the economy out of its death spiral.”

Ari Wald, technical analyst at Oppenheimer, said the market is poised to move higher, and the fall in bond yields that spooked stocks was overdone.

“We’re making the case that the S&P 500, with the snap back, is still in a position to surprise higher. We’re seeing a lot of similarities to the summer of 2016. … After a really strong run-up into the second quarter, the market just spent a few months backing and filling into the summer headwinds, before heading higher,” he said.

Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives at BTIG, says the market may actually have trouble breaking to the next level, though the S&P should end the year at 3,000.

Emanuel said other hurdles remain for the stock market, including the unresolved China tariffs, which are a bigger threat than Mexico was in terms of the economic impact. He also said there is an increasing potential for a hard Brexit as Britain leaves the European Union. He said that could be a negative for risk assets.

While he ultimately expects President Donald Trump to strike a trade deal with China, the trade war between the two could make for a bumpy ride for stocks. Emanuel also said investors are putting too much faith in the Federal Reserve.



“The market has completely overestimated the Fed’s propensity to cut rates,” Emanuel said. “Friday’s [jobs report] was a weak number, but we’ve had a number of those over the years, and the Fed hasn’t reacted.” The government on Friday reported that only 75,000 nonfarm payrolls were created in May, about 100,000 less than expected.

Economists in the last several weeks changed their forecasts to now expect as many as two Fed rate cuts before the end of the year. Even though the threat of tariffs on Mexico was one reason for the lower interest rates forecasts, Fed watchers continued to call for two rate cuts Monday, based on a weakening U.S. economy.

“There are people who are talking about three or four rate cuts in 2019. That’s not going to happen,” Emanuel said. “The market has to work off a little bit of that rate-cut exuberance. That puts a ceiling on stocks. Conversely, the fact the Fed is prepared to act and the fact the market responded favorably to the outcome with Mexico tells you there is a floor under stocks as well,” Emanuel said. “The market needs to range trade for a while, as it waits to get more information on China.”

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