Author Topic: Trump prosperity update  (Read 15305 times)

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #420 on: December 20, 2017, 03:38:38 PM »
U.S. home sales hit 11-year high, supply still tight

December 20, 20117
Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home sales increased more than expected in November, hitting their highest level in nearly 11 years, the latest indication that housing was regaining momentum after almost stalling this year.

The report on Wednesday from the National Association of Realtors also added to data ranging from the labor market to retail sales that have suggested the economy was ending 2017 on a strong note.   

The report on Wednesday from the National Association of Realtors also added to data ranging from the labor market to retail sales that have suggested the economy was ending 2017 on a strong note.

“The greater home sales will stoke the fires for stronger economic growth next year as consumers spend more to furnish their new homes with new appliances and furniture and all the decorations and trimmings,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist MUFG in New York.

Existing home sales surged 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.81 million units last month amid continued recovery in areas in the South ravaged by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and solid gains in other parts of the country.

That was the highest level since December 2006 and marked the third straight monthly rise. Economists had forecast home sales rising only 0.9 percent to a 5.52 million-unit rate in November.

Existing home sales make up about 90 percent of U.S. home sales. They rose 3.8 percent on a year-on-year basis in November. Sales in the South, which accounts for almost half of the existing homes sales market, increased 8.3 percent last month. Sales rose 6.7 percent in the Northeast and jumped 8.4 percent in the Midwest.

They, however, fell 2.3 percent in the West, which has seen an acceleration in house price increases. While the housing market is expected to continue growing next year, there are concerns that a Republican overhaul of the U.S. tax code could hurt sales at the high end of the market.

The biggest overhaul of the tax system in more than 30 years, which could be signed into law by President Donald Trump soon, will cap the deduction for mortgage interest at $750,000 in home loan value for residences bought from Jan. 1, 2018, through Dec. 31, 2025.

The cap would revert to $1 million in loan value after Dec. 31, 2025.

“We expect further increases in sales in 2018, although tax reform is likely to modestly reduce demand at the high end as well as to lower prices for high-priced homes,” said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide in Columbus Ohio.

The report came on the heels of data this week showing homebuilder confidence vaulting to a near 18-1/2-year high in December and single-family homebuilding and permits rising in November to levels last seen in the third quarter of 2007.

Housing is expected to contribute to economic growth in the fourth quarter after being a drag for two straight quarters.

The PHLX housing index was trading higher, outperforming a broadly flat stock market. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. Prices for U.S. Treasuries fell.

SUPPLY SQUEEZE
Despite the recent gains, home resales remain constrained by a chronic shortage of houses at the lower end of the market, which is keeping prices elevated and sidelining some first-time buyers, who accounted for 29 percent of transactions last month.

Economists and realtors say a 40 percent share of first-time buyers is needed for a robust housing market.

The number of previously owned homes on the market dropped 9.7 percent to 1.67 million units in November from a year ago, the second lowest reading since 1999. Housing inventory has dropped for 30 straight months on a year-on-year basis.

At November’s sales pace, it would take a record low 3.4 months to exhaust the current inventory, down from 3.9 months in October. A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

With supply tightening, the median house price increased 5.8 percent from a year ago to $248,000 in November. That was the 69th consecutive month of year-on-year price gains. In contrast, annual wage growth has struggled to break above 2.9 percent since the 2007/09 recession ended.

The government reported on Tuesday that groundbreaking on single-family homes, which account for the largest share of the housing market, jumped 5.3 percent in November to the highest level since September 2007. Housing completions continued to lag at a rate of 1.116 million units.

Realtors estimate that the housing starts and completions rates need to be in a range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million units per month to plug the inventory gap.

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #421 on: December 26, 2017, 11:59:30 PM »
U.S. department store stocks jump on holiday spending record

Reuters   

Richa Naidu
December 26, 2017

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. department stores jumped on Tuesday as Mastercard Inc said shoppers spent over $800 billion during the season, more than ever before, boosted by growing consumer confidence, rising employment and early discounts.

Sarah Quinlan, head of market insights for Mastercard Advisors, disclosed the figure after the payments processor's analytics arm published its SpendingPulse retail report.

The report said holiday sales in stores and online between Nov 1 and Dec 24 rose 4.9 percent, the fastest year-on-year pace of increase since 2011. Mastercard, which tracks spending by combining sales activity in its payments network with estimates of cash and other payment forms, excluded automobile sales from its figures.

Most U.S. retail stocks have tumbled this year as they continued to lose sales to online stores, mainly Amazon.com Inc. Traditional players have also been hurt by heavy investments in technology and discounting, made to keep up with online and off-price competition.

Shares in J.C. Penney Co Inc rose 7.6 percent on Tuesday, while Kohl's Corp shares were up 5.8 percent, Macy's Inc rose 5.1 percent and Nordstrom Inc increased 2.8 percent.

SpendingPulse said the moderate sales increases seen in apparel and department stores were particularly impressive given this year's slew of store closures.

Online sales rose 18.1 percent during the holiday season, thanks to a late rally in sales, according to Mastercard.

"But that's probably only 11 or 12 percent of total retail sales ... the bulk of sales still is very much in stores," said Quinlan.

"There's growth, don't get me wrong, but we still love that experience of being in store."

The biggest winner of the holiday season was likely to be Amazon.com once again, however, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll conducted this month.

Amazon.com said on Tuesday that it had topped its worldwide holiday sales record this year, with more than 4 million people opting to trial Amazon Prime in one week during the period.

REUTERS, dalib!!!

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #422 on: January 03, 2018, 03:33:51 PM »
Manufacturing in the U.S. Just Accelerated to Its Best Year Since 2004

Katia Dmitrieva
January 3, 2018

U.S. manufacturing expanded in December at the fastest pace in three months, as gains in orders and production capped the strongest year for factories since 2004, the Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday.

HIGHLIGHTS OF ISM MANUFACTURING (DECEMBER)

Factory index climbed to 59.7 (est. 58.2) from 58.2 a month earlier; readings above 50 indicate expansion

Gauge of new orders advanced to 69.4, the highest in nearly 14 years, from 64

Measure of production increased to 65.8, the strongest since May 2010, from 63.9

Key Takeaways

The survey-based measure of factory activity -- the year’s second-highest behind September, when storm-related supply delays boosted the index -- brings the 2017 average to 57.6, the best in 13 years. The latest gain extends a string of strong readings that’s been fueled by more domestic business investment, improving global economies and steady spending by American households.

A common refrain from companies surveyed, though, was difficulty finding highly-skilled labor, and some firms are paying higher wages to attract the workforce needed, ISM manufacturing survey committee chairman Timothy Fiore said on a conference call with reporters.



The acceleration in bookings indicates production will remain robust in coming months as factories race to limit mounting order backlogs amid declining customer inventories. Increasing export orders underscore improvement in global markets.

The figures suggest manufacturing strength will persist into early 2018, even after the ISM’s semi-annual survey of purchasing managers published last month showed factories anticipate growth in capital spending to slow this year. The December monthly poll was taken before President Donald Trump signed the tax legislation, which provides companies with incentives to invest more, Fiore said in an interview.

What Our Economists Say

Bloomberg Economics’ assessment that the dip in the November ISM headline was a headfake proved accurate. This was due to the alleviation of bottlenecks following the hurricanes, whereby supplier deliveries weighed on the headline. The December results showed a payback for this effect. However, it was not just that, as enthusiasm for the tax reform bill’s passage bolstered business confidence. This may not be the end of the ISM’s climb, as both new orders and production posted further gains in the month. Business sentiment has been high enough for long enough that it is actually starting to drive the “hard data” in a positive direction.

-- Carl Riccadonna and Yelena Shulyatyeva, Bloomberg Economics


Other Details

Sixteen of 18 industries reported growth in December, led by machinery and computer and electronic products; wood products and textile mills reported contraction

ISM factory employment gauge declined to a still-strong 57 from 59.7

Measure of export orders increased to a six-month high of 58.5 from 56

Gauge of supplier deliveries climbed to 57.9 from 56.5, indicating stronger demand was leading to longer lead times

Index of customer inventories fell to 42 from 45.5, signaling stockpiles were declining at a faster pace

Factory inventories index showed a third straight month of contraction

Index of prices paid climbed to 69 from 65.5

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #423 on: January 04, 2018, 11:32:56 PM »
US private sector added 250,000 jobs in Dec, vs estimate of 190,000: ADP

Private sector job creation surged in December as a strong holiday shopping season pushed companies to hire more workers, ADP and Moody's Analytics says.

Companies hired 250,000 new workers to close out the year, well above Wall Street expectations of 190,000, it says.

The month was the best for job creation since March.

Jeff Cox
Jan 4, 2018

Private sector job creation surged in December as a strong holiday shopping season pushed companies to hire more workers, ADP and Moody's Analytics said Thursday.

The report helped send the Dow to break the 25,000 mark for the first time.

Companies hired 250,000 new workers to close out the year, well above Wall Street expectations of 190,000. The month was the best for job creation since March and topped the 185,000 in November, a number that was revised lower by 5,000.

The total brought 2017's private payroll growth as gauged by ADP and Moody's to 2.54 million, an average of 212,000 a month.

Job growth was broad based, as professional and business services led the way with 72,000 new positions. The education and health services sector was next at 50,000 and trade, transportation and utilities contributed 45,000. Wall Street-related payrolls grew by 19,000.

The information services sector was the only one to lose jobs, reporting a drop of 4,000.

By size, businesses with between 50 and 499 employees added 100,000 jobs while small firms hired 94,000 and large companies contributed 56,000 to the total.

"The job market ended the year strongly," Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said in a statement. "Robust Christmas sales prompted retailers and delivery services to add to their payrolls. The tight labor market will get even tighter, raising the specter that it will overheat."

Overall, service-related companies were responsible for the balance of jobs, with 222,000 new hires. Goods-producing industries added the rest, with construction growing by 16,000 and manufacturing by 9,000.

The private payrolls numbers come a day ahead of the government's closely watched nonfarm payrolls report.

Economists expect that the U.S. economy added about 189,000 jobs in December while the unemployment rate likely stayed at 4.1 percent, according to FactSet.

Economists and policymakers at the Federal Reserve will be watching the wages component most closely. Despite a job market that appears at full employment, salaries have been slow to rise. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3 percent for the month.

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #424 on: January 05, 2018, 12:23:16 PM »
U.S. Economy Adds 148,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment Remains at Record Low

SEAN MORAN
5 Jan 2018

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Friday revealed that the economy added 148,000 jobs in December; the unemployment rate remains at 4.1 percent.

The American unemployment rate remains at 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month, as roughly 6.6 million Americans continue to look for work.

Average hourly private-sector wages rose by 2.5 percent compared to last year. In November wages rose by 2.4 percent.

The American economy continues to boom under President Donald Trump. Over 100 American companies gave their employees up to $2,000 in bonuses after Trump signed the historic Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Several corporations such as AT&T, Comcast, and Nationwide also increased their 401(k) match rate, raise their minimum wages, and increased domestic investment because of the Republican tax bill.

John Kartch, Americans for Tax Reform’s (ATR) vice president of communications, said, “Small businesses from across the country are sending me news of their tax-cut bonuses, wage hikes, and charitable donations. Many of these were only announced internally. There is a broad and deep tsunami building.”

Reports suggest that Apple will repatriate roughly $200 billion in foreign cash because of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

American unemployment claim benefits remain at a record 17-year low and American consumer sentiment reached its highest level since 2000.

The Dow Jones industrial average traded above 25,000 for the first time on Thursday morning, breaking yet another economic milestone.

President Donald Trump tweeted on Friday, “Dow goes from 18,589 on November 9, 2016, to 25,075 today, for a new all-time Record. Jumped 1000 points in last 5 weeks, Record fastest 1000 point move in history. This is all about the Make America Great Again agenda! Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. Six trillion dollars in value created!”

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #425 on: January 09, 2018, 12:29:44 PM »
Dow rises 116 points, adds to record on optimism ahead of earnings season

The major indexes hit fresh record highs.

Financial giants BlackRock, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo are among the companies set to report quarterly results later this week.

Some positive corporate news has already started to trickle down, giving the overall stock market a boost. Target reported better-than-expected holiday sales.

Stocks also followed international markets higher.

Fred Imbert
01/19/2018
   
U.S. equities rose to record highs on Tuesday as investors remained optimistic about the market heading into the corporate earnings season.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 116 points to hit an intraday record. The S&P 500 also hit a fresh all-time intraday high rising 0.3 percent. Health care and financials were the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500. The Nasdaq composite climbed 0.1 percent; it also hit a record.

Stocks also followed international markets higher on Tuesday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose 0.6 percent after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly trimmed its long-dated government bonds purchases. The move raised speculation that the central bank could start unwinding its stimulative policy this year. It could also signal the BOJ's confidence in the Japanese economy is growing.

The Japanese yen traded 0.4 percent higher against the dollar following the announcement.

European stocks also rose, with the Stoxx 600 index advancing 0.6 percent. The French CAC 40 index was among the best performers in Europe, closing 0.6 percent higher.

U.S. equities are off to a strong start for the year as the momentum seen in 2017 carried over into 2018. The major averages have reached fresh record highs in 2018 and have hit key milestones. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed above 25,000, 2,700 and 7,000, respectively, for the first time last week.

Financial giants BlackRock, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo are among the companies set to report quarterly results later this week.

"Q4 is going to be fine," said Maris Ogg, president at Tower Bridge Advisors. "I think the most important thing is going to be getting information on the impact of the tax cuts company by company. There's no reason that shouldn't be mostly positive." President Donald Trump signed a bill last month that cut the federal corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent.

Some positive corporate news has already started to trickle down, giving the overall stock market a boost. On Tuesday, Target reported same-store sales growth of 3.4 percent for the holiday season, surpassing estimates. The stock climbed 3.3 percent.

However, BTIG Chief Technical Strategist Katie Stockton said the S&P 500 "is showing signs of exhaustion from a short-term perspective after having rallied strongly last week."

"We would continue to add exposure to stocks with positive technical catalysts ... while taking down exposure to those that are confirming overbought "sell" signals via a loss of momentum," Stockton said.

Shares of Under Armour fell 5.1 percent on Tuesday, after Susquehanna downgraded the athletics apparel to "negative" from "neutral," noting the Under Armour brand remains at risk.

PayPal's stock rose 0.3 percent after Cowen analyst George Mihalos upgraded the stock and hiked his price target. In a note to clients, Mihalos said he recognizes he has "come to the party well after the candles have been blown out."

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #426 on: January 09, 2018, 11:32:33 PM »
Stocks finish at record highs, S&P 500 has best start to a year since 1987

The major indexes hit fresh record highs.

Financial giants BlackRock, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo are among the companies set to report quarterly results later this week.

Stocks also followed international markets higher.

Fred Imbert
1-9-2018

U.S. equities rose to record highs on Tuesday as investors remained optimistic about the market heading into the corporate earnings season.

The S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high, rising 0.1 percent to close at 2,751.29. The index is also enjoying its best start to a year since 1987. The S&P 500 is up 2.7 percent for the year, notching its biggest six-day gain to kick off a year since then.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 102.80 points to 25,385.80 as Boeing reached an all-time high. The Nasdaq composite climbed 0.1 percent and closed at 7,163.58.

"It's been a great start to the year. The momentum we saw in 2017 carried over into this year," said Jim Davis, regional investment manager at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

Financial giants BlackRock, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo are among the companies set to report quarterly results later this week.

"Q4 is going to be fine," said Maris Ogg, president at Tower Bridge Advisors. "I think the most important thing is going to be getting information on the impact of the tax cuts company by company. There's no reason that shouldn't be mostly positive." President Donald Trump signed a bill last month that cut the federal corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent.

Some positive corporate news has already started to trickle down, giving the overall stock market a boost. On Tuesday, Target reported same-store sales growth of 3.4 percent for the holiday season, surpassing estimates. The stock climbed 2.9 percent.

Stocks also followed international markets higher on Tuesday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 rose 0.6 percent after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly trimmed its long-dated government bonds purchases. The move raised speculation that the central bank could start unwinding its stimulative policy this year. It could also signal the BOJ's confidence in the Japanese economy is growing.

The Japanese yen traded 0.5 percent higher against the dollar following the announcement.

European stocks also rose, with the Stoxx 600 index advancing 0.6 percent. The French CAC 40 index was among the best performers in Europe, closing 0.6 percent higher.

U.S. equities are off to a strong start for the year as the momentum seen in 2017 carried over into 2018. The major averages have reached fresh record highs in 2018 and have hit key milestones. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed above 25,000, 2,700 and 7,000, respectively, for the first time last week.

Shares of Under Armour fell 5.4 percent on Tuesday, after Susquehanna downgraded the athletics apparel to "negative" from "neutral," noting the Under Armour brand remains at risk.

PayPal's stock rose 0.2 percent after Cowen analyst George Mihalos upgraded the stock and hiked his price target. In a note to clients, Mihalos said he recognizes he has "come to the party well after the candles have been blown out."

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #427 on: January 10, 2018, 11:15:32 PM »
Poll: Voters' perception of economy at record high

MALLORY SHELBOURNE
01/10/18

Perceptions of the U.S. economy have reached a record high among voters, according to a new poll.

Two-thirds of voters polled, 66 percent, said in a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday they would characterize the economy as “excellent” or “good.” Quinnipiac noted that figure is the highest rating since it began asking the question in 2001.

Thirty-three percent, however, said they view the economy as “not so good” or “poor.”

Nearly half of respondents, 49 percent, say former President Obama is more responsible for the current economy, while 40 percent attribute the current economic state to President Trump.

"President Trump can hang his hat on the economy, but must share the hat rack with President Barack Obama, as two-thirds of the country see the economic picture as excellent or good," Quinnipiac University Poll assistant director Tim Malloy said in a statement.

A majority of voters, 73 percent, said they would characterize their own current financial standing as “excellent” or “good,” while 26 percent said their financial situation is “not so good” or “poor.”

The survey of 1,106 voters across the country was conducted Jan. 5-9 via landlines and cellphones and has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #428 on: January 11, 2018, 12:52:35 PM »
Nearly half of respondents, 49 percent, say former President Obama is more responsible for the current economy, while 40 percent attribute the current economic state to President Trump.

You're getting sloppy, propagandist
So let's see how fucking brilliant I truly am.
Clinton will not ever be President of the United States.

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #429 on: January 11, 2018, 02:59:20 PM »
You're getting sloppy, propagandist

Getting?

We assumed that the cult follower had integrity but that was our error.

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #430 on: January 11, 2018, 04:53:06 PM »
You're getting sloppy, propagandist
--How so? People are entitled to their perception of a thing (except on Twitter, apparently).

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #431 on: January 14, 2018, 12:21:35 AM »
90% Of Workers Likely To See More Money In Paycheck Next Month

Jeanne Sahadi and Katie Lobosco, CNN Money
January 12, 201

(CNN Money) — The U.S. Treasury and the IRS on Thursday put out new guidance and withholding tables for employers that incorporate changes from the new tax law.

Under those new tables, the Treasury estimates that 90% of people who get a paycheck are likely to see more in take-home pay, as soon as February. Employers will have until Feb. 15 to incorporate the changes in their payroll systems.

But for many taxpayers, they will need to assess whether the new tables really are withholding enough money so that they’re not saddled with a big bill when they file their taxes next year.

The major changes affecting individuals include new tax brackets, (mostly) lower income tax rates, a near-doubling of the standard deduction and the elimination of both personal exemptions as well as many itemized deductions.

The new tables are designed not only to best approximate the change in workers’ tax liability under the new law, but to do so in a way that “delivers benefits as soon as possible to as many people as possible with as little disruption as possible,” a senior Treasury official told reporters.

The IRS is not issuing new Form W-4s … yet. “We’ve constructed the tables so that most people should be accurately withheld if they leave their W-4 in place,” a senior IRS official noted.

Related: Will enough tax be withheld from your paycheck? Good question

The plan is to have new W-4s by 2019. Personal exemptions are a core feature of the current withholding system, but now that they are eliminated, “it’s necessary to build a new approach to withholding, which will take some time,” the senior IRS official said.

In the meantime, he urged filers who have complicated tax situations — i.e., anyone who is not single, childless and holding down just one job — to review the number of allowances they currently take on their W4s once the IRS puts out its new withholding calculator by the end of February.

Such a calculator will ask for anonymous inputs — for example, your income, number of dependents and other pieces of information that help determine whether you might be eligible for various tax breaks.

“We would encourage every taxpayer to run their information through the calculator. Then they can decide what they want to do,” the senior IRS official said.

That’s not bad advice for any year when there are big tax changes but it’s especially critical this year.

Most people fill out their W-4 form when they’re hired at a new job and don’t change it unless they get married, have kids, get divorced or experience other life-changing situations.

And roughly three-quarters of tax filers are overwithheld because they take too few allowances. And that results in a refund when they file their tax returns. The IRS doesn’t expect that to change much under the new tax law given the preference filers have shown for getting big refunds, rather than just breaking even or having to cut a new check to Uncle Sam when they file their returns.

Too good to be true?

Democrats are concerned the rushed withholding tables could leave many tax filers in a situation of potentially being underwithheld for tax year 2018 and therefore left owing money when they file their tax returns in early 2019.

“Republicans are using brute force and speed to implement a law that will deliver a financial blow to hardworking Americans all across the country,” Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said in a statement.

Earlier this week, Wyden and Rep. Richard Neal, the top Democrat on the House tax-writing committee, asked the Government Accountability Office to analyze the new IRS tables to see if they might lead to systematic underwithholding of federal taxes from paychecks.

“I look forward to GAO’s independent review of these tables, which will expose whether the Trump administration is tampering with Americans’ paychecks, resulting in a whopping tax bill next year,” Wyden said.

The GAO has said Wyden’s request must go through its usual review process before a decision to proceed is made.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at the White House press briefing on Thursday dismissed suspicions that administration is “juicing” the tables as a “ridiculous charge.”

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #432 on: January 16, 2018, 11:13:25 AM »
Dow 26,000: The stock market is a runaway freight train

Matt Egan
January 16, 2018

Seven trading days. That's how long it took the Dow to rocket from 25,000 to 26,000.

The market's latest milestone, reached on Tuesday just after the opening bell, easily sets the record for the fastest rise between 1,000-point barriers. The Dow has been around for 121 years.

The Dow has spiked almost 8,000 points, or about 42%, since President Trump's election. The stock market boom reflects enormous excitement on Wall Street about record corporate profits and strong economic growth at home and abroad -- all of which could be boosted by the GOP tax overhaul.

"The market has certainly come out of the gates fast in 2018 after a stellar 2017," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.

It's true that 1,000-point milestones come easier at these lofty levels. On a percentage basis, it's just not nearly as big of a move as it was from 10,000 to 11,000.

Still, the relentless surge is raising concern even among some bulls that things are getting out of hand.

Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research, told clients in a report on Tuesday that he believes the market is in a "melt-up." That's a rapid price increase based on emotion -- fear of missing out on gains -- rather than on old-fashioned fundamentals.

"I'm not a big fan of melt-ups," Yardeni wrote. "They tend to be followed by meltdowns."

Michael Block, chief market strategist at Rhino Trading Partners, said the "fear of missing out is resonating," if not "screaming."

"I just question whether this is too far too fast," Block wrote in a note on Tuesday.

Some stocks are up even more than the Dow since Trump's election. Amazon (AMZN) has zoomed 66%, Netflix (NFLX) has spiked 78%, and Nvidia (NVDA) has skyrocketed 218%. It's not just tech. Look at Bank of America's (BAC) 83% rise or Best Buy's (BBY) 93% surge.

Hogan said that in many ways investors are scrambling to react to the tax law, which delivered a huge tax cut to corporations and a gift to Wall Street. It should save companies billions of dollars, freeing them to reward investors with share buybacks, dividends and mergers and acquisitions.

"We're just starting to see Corporate America tell us what a lower corporate tax rate means to the bottom line. We shouldn't dismiss that," said Hogan.

Yet Hogan said investors, especially ones who missed a chunk of the rally, would be more comfortable if stocks finally took a breather.

The S&P 500 hasn't declined 3%, either in a single day or over several days, since early November 2016. That's the longest period of calm in history, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

More impressive: The S&P 500 hasn't suffered a 5% pullback since June 2016, weeks before Trump secured the GOP presidential nomination. It's the second-longest such streak ever, according to LPL Financial.

Dan Suzuki, senior U.S. equities strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, thinks the market is experiencing a "melt-up" and investor sentiment is nearing "euphoria," though it's not quite there yet.

Suzuki says history shows that bull markets typically end on very, very strong notes. This bull market began in March 2009, near the end of the Great Recession.

The S&P 500 has quadrupled from its bear market low. But the gains have clearly accelerated since Trump's election.

"It's an extremely impressive rally," Suzuki said. "It's pretty indicative of what you see at the end of bull markets when sentiment is in the driver's seat."

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #433 on: January 19, 2018, 12:55:46 PM »


The Dow's 31% gain during Trump's first year is the best since FDR

The 30-stock index has surged more than 31 percent since Trump's inauguration.

That marks the index's best performance during the first year of a president since Franklin Roosevelt.

"You've got lower taxes, less regulation and confidence in the economy is high," said one investor.

The S&P 500 has surged 23 percent during Trump's first year in office.


Fred Imbert
1/19/2018

Donald Trump lifted the Dow Jones industrial average in his first year in office more than any other president since Franklin Roosevelt.

The Dow has surged more than 31 percent since Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2017. That marks the index's best performance during a president's first year since Roosevelt. The Dow skyrocketed 96.5 percent during Roosevelt's first year in office.

"This is all about policy," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Baird. "You've got lower taxes, less regulation and confidence in the economy is high. Things are firing on all cylinders."

Trump quickly moved to cut regulations enacted by previous administrations. He also successfully pushed to overhaul the U.S. tax code. That revamp included slashing the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent.

The president made it to the White House saying he would "put America first." Since taking office, Trump has pushed to have companies bring back jobs to the U.S. and has said repeatedly said his policies would help to accomplish this.

These policy and rhetoric shifts have helped the so-called old guard of the stock market rally.

Shares of Boeing and Caterpillar — both founded in the early 1900s — are up 115 percent and 82 percent, respectively, since Trump entered the White House. They are also the best-performing Dow stocks since Trump took office. These companies benefit greatly from lower taxes and less regulation, and tend to rise the most when people believe the economic cycle is accelerating.

Some investors believe Trump is getting too much credit for the run-up and it's really the strength of the global economy boosting these industrial stocks.

"There is clearly a coincidence between Trump's election and the run-up in stock prices over the past year," Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, said in a note earlier this week. "However, coinciding with Trump's victory was mounting evidence of a global synchronized boom. In our opinion, the run-up in stock prices over the past year has been a continuation of the bull market within a bull market that started on February 12, 2016."

Trump doesn't see it that way, often patting himself on the back about the Dow's successes during his first year in office. He's tweeted about the index at least a dozen times in the last year. The president also mentioned the Dow repeatedly in meetings and news conferences. Most recently, Trump took credit for the index breaking above 25,000 for the first time. He also told reporters: "I guess our new number is 30,000."

He talks less about the S&P 500, perhaps because its name recognition isn't as strong as the Dow's, but also because it's gains are slightly less impressive.

The broader S&P 500 jumped 23 percent during Trump's first year in office. But the index did better during the first year of three other presidents: Roosevelt, Barack Obama and Harry Truman.

The S&P 500 rose 96 percent in Roosevelt's first year. It gained 33.5 percent when Truman took office and 34 percent after Obama was sworn in.

Obama took office in January 2009, less than two months before the market started to recover from the financial crisis.

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Re: Trump recovery update
« Reply #434 on: January 22, 2018, 06:39:25 PM »
Dow surges 142 points to record, erasing earlier losses as Senate reaches deal to end shutdown

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite rose to all-time highs.

Members of the senate reached a short-term compromise to keep the government open through Feb. 8.


Fred Imbert
Jan 22, 2018

Stocks closed higher on Monday, erasing slight losses from earlier in the session, as U.S. lawmakers reached a deal that would resume government operations.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent to close at a record of 2,832.97, with energy and telecommunications as the best-performing sectors. The Nasdaq composite also reached an all-time high, advancing 1 percent to 7,408.03, with shares of Netflix hitting a record. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 142.88 points to close at 26,214.60, an all-time high.

Stocks kicked off the session trading lower, but quickly erased those losses.

"The market has been through this enough times and understands Republicans and Democrats will come to an agreement," said Mark Heppenstall, CIO at Penn Mutual Asset Management.

Members of the senate reached a short-term compromise to keep the government open through Feb. 8. Democratic Sen. Mark Warner said the party has the assurance it needs on the budget and immigration issues.

On Saturday, the U.S. government shut down after a bill that would have kept government funded through mid-February was voted against in the Senate. The shutdown continued for a third day on Monday after the Senate on Sunday failed to reach an agreement to break an impasse before the work week began in Washington.

Historically, a brief bout of volatility has hit the market following a government shutdown. The Cboe Volatility Index, also known as the VIX and considered the best gauge of fear in the market trades positive 75 percent of the time one week after a shutdown and averaged a return of 9.7 percent, according to CNBC analysis using Kensho. The S&P 500 averages a return of negative 0.3 percent.

But these moves are often short-lived. The S&P 500 averaged a return of 2.1 percent a month after a shutdown and trades positive 80 percent of the time.

"Anyone with capital markets experience knows that US government shutdowns are largely meaningless in the context of financial asset values," said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note. "Getting sucked into a series of seemingly ominous headlines that smarter players already understand is a typical rookie trading mistake."

Investors also paid attention to the corporate earnings season. On Monday, Halliburton reported better-than-expected earnings, sending the company's shares up 3.7 percent.

The calendar fourth-quarter earnings season is off to a good start. As of Friday, 68 percent of the S&P 500 companies that had reported surpassed earnings expectations, while 85 percent of those companies had beaten sales estimates, according to FactSet.

What's more, "last week, 27 companies in the S&P 500 reported 4Q 2017 results, not one of those companies had its next quarter (i.e. 1Q 2018) EPS estimates lowered after releasing results," said Nick Raich, CEO of The Earnings Scout, in a note.

"This is an amazing stat because in EVERY earnings season over the last seven years, a majority of S&P 500 companies have had their next quarter estimates lowered after reporting. So, the fact not one of the companies reporting last week had EPS estimates lowered is remarkable," Raich said.

Netflix and TD Ameritrade are scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the bell Monday.

Elsewhere in corporate news, Twitter shares fell 1.4 percent after CNBC reported that executive Anthony Noto has been offered the CEO job at Social Finance.

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